THE COLD WAR IN ASIA – UNFINISHED VIETNAM WAR
In my analysis, the border tensions between India and Communist China are mere symptoms of ‘The Cold War in Asia’.
Nations of ‘Free World’ were alarmed by the spread of Communism into Asia. United States spent billions of dollars to prevent Communist takeover of China. Having failed to do so, United States pursued a policy of containing the spread of Communism in Asia. In the battles of Korean Peninsula, and Vietnam, Communists prevailed with support from Soviet Union and Communist China.
India’s border tension problems began with Red China’s illegal occupation of Tibet since 1950. During 1960s and 1970s, the United States and India had opportunity to launch Tibet Campaign to defend Freedom, Democracy, Peace, and Justice in Asia. Most unfortunately, during 1971-72, Nixon-Kissinger Vietnam Treason placed ‘The Cold War in Asia’ on ‘back-burner’.
I am not surprised by Communist China’s military assertiveness for the US withdrew without accomplishing ‘War for Peace’ Mission fervently advocated by US President Dwight D. Eisenhower in December 1956 while on visit to India.
CHINA’S TOUGH STANCE ON INDIA DISPUTE RAISING CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ASIA, ANALYSTS SAY
Beijing’s handling of protracted conflict in Himalayas has had a spillover effect in the region and fueled suspicion
Vehicles travel along a mountain road near the Nathu La Pass, an open trading post in the Himalayas between India and China, in Sikkim, India. Photo: Bloomberg
The protracted border dispute between China and India in the Himalayas has created a “spillover effect” as China’s neighbors become unsettled by its tough handling of the escalating conflict between the two Asian giants, foreign policy experts have said.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Indian counterpart Smt. Sushma Swaraj are scheduled to attend the Asean foreign ministers’ meeting in Manila later this week. And while the North Korean nuclear crisis and South China Sea disputes are expected to dominate the meeting, analysts will also be keeping a close eye on how members of the 10-nation group interact with China and India.
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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations generally regards a robust Indian presence in the region as a useful deterrent against China, which has been increasingly assertive in its approach to handling territorial issues, as has been the case in the Himalayas.
The disputed Doklam region (called Donglang by China) on the India, Bhutan and China tri-border. Graphic: SCMP
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China and India last week held their first substantial talks since the dispute broke out more than a month ago in the Doklam region, where the pair shares a border with Bhutan. Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi met Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in Beijing, though neither showed any signs of backing down and tensions remain high.
Also last week, China’s Defence ministry issued its strongest warning yet to India, with a spokesman saying Beijing had stepped up its deployment along the unmarked border and would protect its sovereignty “at all costs”.
Richard Javad Heydarian, a political scientist at the Manila-based De La Salle University, said the stand-off in Doklam had had a “spillover effect” by fueling suspicion among countries that are caught in separate territorial disputes with China.
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“People are asking, if China is really peaceful, why are there so many countries having disputes with China?” he said.
Such sentiment may create fertile ground for Southeast Asian countries to leverage China’s influence with engagement with India.
Vietnam’s foreign minister and deputy prime minister, Pham Binh Minh, has called on India to play a greater role in the region and to partner with Southeast Asian countries on strategic security and promoting freedom of navigation in South China Sea.
India Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at a BRICS leaders’ meeting with the bloc’s Business Council in Goa last October 16. Photo: AFP
A few days after Minh spoke, Vietnam granted Indian Oil firm ONGC Videsh a two-year extension on its plan to explore a Vietnamese oil block in an area of the South China Sea contested by China and Vietnam.
Analysts said recent developments have wide strategic implications – pointing to how Asia is increasingly defined by the China-India rivalry and the renewed tensions between the two Asian giants.
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Nisha Desai Biswal, former US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, was quoted by Indian media PTI as saying that China needs to acknowledge that “there is growing strategic and security capability across Asia” and that “India is a force to be reckoned with”.
Wang Yi on Tuesday backed Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s idea of forming joint energy ventures in the disputed South China Sea, warning that unilateral action could cause problems and damage both sides.
A Chinese soldier, left, is shown next to an Indian soldier at the Nathu La border crossing between India and China in India’s northeastern Sikkim state. Photo: AFP
Duterte on Monday said a partner had been found to develop oil fields and exploration, and exploitation would restart this year.
However, analysts warn that India’s strong position in the standoff has strengthened the hawkish voices in the Philippines who seize opportunities to criticize Duterte’s détente policy towards China and “push forward the narrative that the Philippines needs to be careful on how to approach China and its territorial expansion”, Heydarian said.
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Under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Act East” policy, India in recent years has formed strategic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, and Northeast Asian countries including Japan and South Korea.
During the “India-Asean Delhi Dialogue IX” early this month, Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said New Delhi remained committed to enhancing maritime cooperation with Asean as well as upholding freedom of navigation and respect for international law in the region.
A Chinese soldier gestures as he stands near an Indian soldier on the Chinese side of the ancient Nathu La border crossing between India and China. Photo: AFP
Heydarian suggests that India’s upgrading of its strategic partnership with Asean and increasing its strategic presence in the South China Sea could be a way of pushing back against China.
Even a non-claimant Southeast Asian state such as Thailand “would see the benefit of China being challenged in the South Asia theatre”, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an international relations scholar at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University.
“India’s standing up to China can only be a boon for Southeast Asian countries even when they don’t say so openly,” he said, “Any major power keeping China in check can only yield geopolitical benefits to Southeast Asia as the region is wary of China’s growing assertiveness.”
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But Pongsudhirak also said that India, a “latecomer to Southeast Asia’s geopolitics”, still lacks strategic depth in terms of military reach and economic wherewithal. “But in combination with other middle powers like Japan, India can have a significant impact in Southeast Asia’s power dynamics,” he said.
Despite Southeast Asian countries’ welcoming attitude, India has remained cautious towards more strongly engaging with the region, observers said.
An Indian Soldier stands at the Nathu La border crossing between India and China in India’s northeastern Sikkim state. Photo: Handout
“Southeast Asia is a natural extension of India’s security horizons in light of its growth as a regional power,” said Rajesh Manohar Basrur, a South Asia specialist with Nanyang Technological University.
Basrur said that while competition with China is a major driver of India’s engagement with Southeast Asia, India’s commitment to the region remains limited with measures amounting to no more than “symbolic acts such as military exercises, [to] generate a strategic environment aimed at building up political-psychological pressure on [China].”
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Sourabh Gupta, a senior specialist at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said that as India tries to limit fallout from its Doklam intervention, it will not want to expand the theatre of conflict or widen the geography of competition in the short-term.
“But I can foresee India making a qualitatively greater effort, albeit quietly, to build up Vietnam’s naval and law enforcement capacity to confront and deter Chinese assertiveness,” he said.
Gupta also warned that the situation in the South China Sea could lapse into even further conflict.
Chinese troops hold a banner which reads, “You’ve crossed the border, please go back.”
“India and China have a fairly rich menu of boundary management protocols which effectively translate into engagements between very lightly armed personnel from either side when a standoff breaks out,” he said.
“That is different from the situation in the South and East China Sea where engagement protocols are still very rudimentary and could see sharp escalatory spirals.”